The political situation in Somalia is deteriorating rapidly and entering a very dangerous phase. Many people never imagined that after the era of Mohamed Siad Barre, the country could again face leadership that resembles or even exceeds authoritarian tendencies. While Siad Barre ruled the entire nation under a centralized system, the current president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, governs only a limited portion of the country, estimated at around 20%, yet is accused of consolidating power in a similar authoritarian manner.

Despite limited territorial control, he has pushed forward constitutional changes that are widely viewed as unilateral and lacking national consensus. These actions are seen by critics as an attempt to override the agreed framework of the Provisional Constitution of Somalia 2012 and instead impose a new political order that favors extended executive power. His reported intention to extend his presidential term by two additional years has further escalated political tensions and raised serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in Somalia.

At the federal level, relations between Villa Somalia and several member states have significantly broken down. In particular, tensions have intensified with:

These states are increasingly asserting autonomy and resisting what they perceive as unconstitutional overreach by the central government. The situation has reached a point where cooperation within the federal system is severely weakened, and some leaders have openly challenged the legitimacy of federal decisions.

There are also growing allegations that the federal government is relying on military force to assert political control, rather than engaging in dialogue and consensus-building. The situation in Baidoa is particularly sensitive, with fears that armed confrontation could occur if political disputes are not resolved peacefully.

Externally, the role of foreign actors has become a major point of controversy. Turkey is seen as a key ally of the federal government, providing military training, infrastructure support, and strategic assistance. However, critics argue that this support is enabling centralized control and may be linked to influence over Somalia’s strategic resources. At the same time, regional actors such as Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia are deeply involved in Somali affairs, each pursuing their own political and security interests.

Another major concern is the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab. Political instability, divisions among federal and regional authorities, and contested legitimacy at the national level could create an environment where extremist groups regain strength and expand their influence. There are also serious accusations circulating about indirect links or infiltration, though such claims remain highly sensitive and require credible evidence.

In addition, there are accusations that the federal government is interfering in the affairs of Republic of Somaliland, which declared the restoration of its independence in 1991. Such actions risk escalating tensions further and complicating an already fragile political landscape in the Horn of Africa.

There is a growing call among critics and opposition figures for urgent corrective measures, including:

The organization of free and fair elections within the constitutional timeframe

Rejection of any unilateral constitutional changes

A return to the agreed framework of the 2012 provisional constitution

Inclusive political dialogue involving all federal member states

De-escalation of military involvement in political disputes

There is also an emerging view that regional powers, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, may need to play a stabilizing role to prevent further deterioration, although such involvement remains controversial.

As the constitutional timeline approaches, reportedly around mid-May 2026, the political stakes are extremely high. If elections are delayed or manipulated, the country could face a deep constitutional crisis, increased fragmentation, and potential security breakdown.

If no agreement is reached on a presidential election before May 15, 2026, the federal member states and opposition groups are expected to take unilateral action. In such a scenario, they may establish an alternative political process to elect a new president and form a new cabinet.

This process could potentially take place in key regional centers such as Garowe or Kismayo or Baidoa, where opposition-aligned administrations maintain significant control and political influence.

Such a development would likely result in:

The emergence of parallel governments

A deep constitutional and legitimacy crisis

Further fragmentation of the federal system

Increased risk of political and security instability

This scenario underscores the urgent need for a negotiated and inclusive electoral agreement to avoid institutional collapse and preserve national unity.

In conclusion, Somalia stands at a critical crossroads. The choices made in the coming weeks will determine whether the country moves toward stability and democratic governance or slides further into political fragmentation and conflict.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)