Yet another poll and yet another result showing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of Labor at a national level, with the Coalition way behind.

The latest Newspoll has confirmed the trend is clear. Labor is becoming increasingly alarmed, while the Coalition has long been in panic.

Meanwhile, at a state level, polling by Freshwater for the Herald Sun shows Labor running third in Victoria behind the Coalition and One Nation. Almost two-thirds (62%) of the 1,034 people polled also backed replacing Jacinta Allan as premier before the November election – including 39% of Labor voters surveyed.

To discuss why the Victorian election matters nationally, as well as the ongoing federal budget fallout, we’re joined on the podcast by pollster and Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh.

He’s spent more than 20 years in market and social research, including doing qualitative research for the Daniel Andrews Labor government’s successful re-election campaign in 2018.

The Victorian election will be the next electoral test of One Nation’s recent rise – and Welsh predicts it will be “very, very messy” to watch.

On Victoria’s ‘messy’ three-way contest

Welsh said Labor’s vote in Victoria has now fallen “down to its base”. Given One Nation and the Coalition are both polling slightly higher, he understands why many people assume the Allan government will lose the election.

But it’s not quite that simple.

He said One Nation and Coalition had more support statewide, but their votes fall mainly in the same regional or outer suburban areas.

For now, Labor’s vote is holding up middle suburban seats in and around Melbourne, where the most seats are, still giving Labor

a foundation to potentially get close to majority government, even with the polls sort of sitting where it is now. [Labor’s] overlay of its primary vote on the........

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