Since US and Israeli strikes began on the last day of February, millions of Iranians have been living under attack, an internet blackout and tight restrictions on journalists and humanitarian agencies.

But many people are on the move, trying to get away from dangerous places or to be reunited with family at a time of conflict. In an information blackout, with internet access almost completely shut down across Iran, it’s hard to build a detailed picture of this population movement. But in the absence of conventional data on internal population displacement, we have been piecing together where people are moving by looking at faint but persistent signals of internet activity.

Our latest analysis and situation report covering the war since its outbreak, shows a clear geographic pattern and timeline of movement.

This is one of the first near real-time pictures of displacement within Iran. It complements cross-border figures from the UN’s International Organization for Migration, which recorded roughly 40,000 departures from Iran between March 3 and 10, mainly to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Our data offers a partial view of movement inside the country, where conventional methods of counting displaced people have largely broken down.

In the first days of the war, our estimates indicate relative increases in population presence in provinces near the borders with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. As the conflict evolved, the pattern shifted eastward and towards the capital. By the third week, provinces bordering Afghanistan and Tehran showed the strongest signs of population concentration.

Tehran stands out. Despite being repeatedly struck by Israeli and US missiles, the Iranian capital shows what........

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