Serbia’s leaderless anti-corruption coalition, the Student List, defeated the group led by former president Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) by a comfortable margin in October 25 elections.

Their 53.3% of the vote should get them 141 seats in parliament, well clear of the 125 seats needed to form a majority. The SNS can be a loud but ineffectual opposition with the 103 seats netted by their 39.7% of the vote.

The result was known shortly after polls closed, with Vučić conceding defeat 90 minutes later. Once the celebrations settle down, it looks as if Serbia will manage a peaceful transfer of power to a democratically elected government.

Read more: ‘We changed the system’: how Serbian students ended Alexander Vučić’s 12 years in power

This was not inevitable. By mid-afternoon on election day, news outlets were reporting concentrations of armoured police vehicles and movements of personnel at various spots in central Belgrade.

Photos then circulated of armoured cars in front of the state presidency building, sparking concern the regime was preparing to defend by force what it could not defend with votes. But, happily, the police withdrew as soon as Vučić made his concession.

If there is a single factor that is making a peaceful transfer of power possible, it can probably be expressed in one word: turnout.

Nearly 70% of eligible voters participated in the election, exceeding the 59% turnout in the last parliamentary election in 2023. To understand why this made the difference, we need to look at the SNS’s principal electoral strategies.

The first is to........

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