Wales is going to the polls on May 7 to elect members to the Senedd (Welsh parliament). And the results could bring big change to the country. The polls are suggesting that this election will result in the biggest shake-up to the political landscape since the creation of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.

Labour looks likely to lose significant electoral support, with Plaid Cymru and Reform vying to replace it as the largest party in the Senedd. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are hoping to retain a parliamentary presence, while other parties (such as the Greens) may well secure their first ever seats in the Senedd.

The outcome of the election is made even more uncertain by changes to how elections work for the Senedd. A proportional electoral system has been introduced, to elect a larger number of representatives (from 60 to 96 members), who will represent 16 new constituencies.

In this context of political uncertainty, the Welsh Election Study 2026 has been asking people what they think about the Senedd election, and democracy more broadly in Wales. My team surveyed more than 10,000 people across Wales, two-thirds of whom told us that they’re interested in the election.

Most felt that who wins the election will make........

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