In early 2024, global investment in artificial intelligence surged past $90 billion, with projections continuing upward as companies, governments, and individuals reposition themselves around what many describe as the defining technology of our time. The scale is striking. The certainty behind it is far less so.

History offers a familiar pattern. During the dot-com boom, capital flooded into internet companies long before viable business models had emerged. The aftermath is well documented: a market correction that wiped out trillions in value, followed by a slower, more grounded integration of digital technologies into everyday life. Today’s AI landscape carries echoes of that moment, though the stakes extend further into labor markets, environmental systems, social structures – and into our individual minds...

The current wave differs in another important respect: the speed at which adoption is unfolding. Already, a 2023 McKinsey report estimated that generative AI could add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy, a range so broad that it reveals as much uncertainty as opportunity. That number keeps rising. But when projections span trillions, precision gives way to speculation. We fall prey to wishful thinking when careful deliberation might be a better bet.

Financial Bets Without Foundation?

Financial markets tend to reward momentum. Companies perceived as “AI leaders” have seen sharp increases in valuation, often disconnected from immediate revenue streams. At the same time, large financial institutions are investing heavily in AI infrastructure and tools, even as internal assessments remain cautious about near-term returns. Banks are under pressure to adopt AI technologies rapidly, despite unresolved questions about risk, governance, and long-term profitability.

This dynamic reflects a broader behavioral pattern: acute FOMO, fear of missing out.........

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