The 21st century has witnessed the weaponisation of trade in ways that would have seemed unthinkable during the globalisation consensus of the 1990s. In July 2025, the United States signalled this new reality by imposing tariffs ranging from 10 to 20 per cent on Indian goods, subsequently expanding them to 25 and 50 per cent, explicitly punishing India for purchasing Russian oil. The move carried a singular message: alignment with American strategic priorities must supersede national interest.

The United States was not alone in deploying tariffs as an instrument of coercion. China has restricted technology exports; the European Union has weaponised green trade standards; smaller nations have learnt that economic pressure is now as consequential as military posture. In this fractured landscape, India faced a choice familiar to many rising powers: capitulate to pressure, escalate reciprocally, or chart a third path grounded in diversification and strategic patience.

India chose the third path. The response was not theatrical, no tit-for-tat tariff wars, no inflammatory rhetoric, no performative nationalism. Instead, New Delhi reaffirmed its sovereign right to make independent energy choices and pursued a carefully calibrated strategy rooted in a principle articulated nearly two centuries earlier by British Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

This is not the language of non-alignment from the Cold War era, where non-aligned meant neutral or absent from great-power competition. India today operates in a world of constant engagement with multiple powers. Strategic autonomy, as Modi’s government has practised it, means something more precise: the capacity to engage all powers on terms set by India’s interests, rather than accept the false binary of choosing sides.

India’s capacity to weather external coercion rests on deliberate domestic capacity building. Over the past decade, the government has invested heavily in infrastructure and manufacturing, treating these not as ends in themselves but as prerequisites of strategic independence.

The National Infrastructure Pipeline, which allocated Rs 44 lakh crore for implementation, has reshaped India’s trade logistics. Port turnaround times have been reduced by 40%, directly enhancing export competitiveness. This seemingly technical improvement has profound strategic implications: faster ports mean shorter capital cycles, lower working capital requirements, and greater resilience against supply shocks. It translates to practical independence.

The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, launched in 2020 with an outlay of Rs 1.97 lakh crore across 14 key sectors, has become India’s most consequential industrial policy instrument. By November 2024, it had attracted Rs 1.76 lakh crore in committed investments, generating over 12 lakh direct and indirect jobs. India’s electronics manufacturing sector, a sector of strategic significance for both consumer markets and defence applications, has expanded from USD 48 billion in 2019 to USD 115 billion by 2025, with companies like Apple shifting 14 per cent of iPhone production to India.

Apple’s presence alone signals to the world that India is no longer merely a low-cost assembly hub but a location for significant manufacturing footprints. The pharmaceuticals sector, which supplies 20 per cent of global generic drugs by volume, provides additional leverage. When a nation controls the global supply of medicines, its ability to withstand tariff pressure becomes structural, rather than contingent.

By 2024–25, India’s total........

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