Graham Platner Is Weakened—But He Can Still Win in November

Controversies about his past dogged the Democrat on the eve of the primary. But he still has a great chance of defeating Susan Collins.

Graham Platner will kick off starts his first general election at one of the lowest points of his upstart Senate campaign. There has been nonstop coverage, both in Maine and nationally, about racy text messages he sent to women who aren’t his wife, as well as his alleged callous treatment of ex-girlfriends. That drumbeat helped lead to Tuesday’s election results, in which about 20 percent of Maine Democrats essentially gave Platner a no-confidence vote by backing Governor Janet Mills, who had suspended her campaign in late April because Platner had built a substantial lead over her, despite the backing of establishment Democrats in Washington, D.C. Now, journalists are writing articles describing how the Maine Democratic Party could choose a new, scandal-free candidate if Platner can be convinced to drop out by July 13. It’s not an ideal beginning to his battle with incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has consistently overperformed in Maine elections.

Democrats are nervous about Platner, and they should be. In a must-win Senate race, voters have nominated a high-risk, high-reward candidate—one whose downside seems much clearer than his upside. That said, all is not lost. Platner has a very strong chance of winning this seat. These last few weeks could end up being much ado about little.

Why am I optimistic about Platner? First and foremost, all indications are that this is poised to be a very good election year for Democrats overall—the best for the party since 2018. Democrats have done very well since the start of 2025 in special elections for state legislative and congressional seats across the country, as well as the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey. Trump’s approval ratings are terrible. As data analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote earlier this week, this election is shaping up to be one where stalwart Democratic voters turn out at higher levels than their Republican counterparts; new voters favor the Democrats; and more voters swing from Republican to Democrat than vice versa. In this environment, Democratic candidates are the favorites in toss-up states like Michigan and even more so in places that lean slightly Democratic, like Maine.

In “wave” elections, as 2026 is likely to be, politicians from the president’s party often lose even if they are, like Collins, well-established figures. If you want to know what Platner’s........

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