Trump and Xi: Managing Rivalry Before It Becomes Conflict

The Trump-Xi summit did not mark a US-China rapprochement, but it demonstrates that sustained diplomacy and strategic guardrails are essential to prevent intensifying competition from becoming direct conflict.

During this summit, both sides extended their trade truce until January 10, while divisive issues such as Taiwan, technological restrictions, artificial intelligence, rare earth minerals, and the Iran war remained on the agenda, with no considerable progress in any of these domains. Therefore, the summit should not be interpreted as the beginning of a US-China rapprochement. Its actual significance lies in the attempt to contain the risks of an increasingly consequential direct confrontation between the two sides. Considering the volatile global situation, the question is whether the two superpowers can prevent their competition from becoming a conflict.

From Trade War to Strategic Rivalry

Over the years, the Sino-US competition has moved far beyond trade deficits and tariffs. Economic rivalry has been intermingled with technological competition, national security, and geopolitical influence. Rare earth minerals, artificial intelligence, advanced technologies, and semiconductors have become strategic assets for both sides. However, Taiwan remains the most serious flashpoint with the potential to trigger a direct confrontation between the two powers, as reflected in the recent Xi-Trump summit.

Although trade was one of the key elements of bilateral discussion, the broader agenda also included Taiwan, technological advancement, AI, and the US-Iran war. Indeed, the meeting was heavy on symbolism; no clear........

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