Signs of mounting risk are emerging as Israel moves to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent, sovereign state — a step that has prompted widespread Arab and international condemnation and heightened regional concern.

The territory, which declared its secession from Somalia in 1991, is poised to become a focal point for regional competition, and potentially an arena for Israeli–Egyptian, Israeli–Turkish, and Egyptian–Ethiopian rivalry over influence in the Red Sea.

Israel’s sudden initiative has raised serious fears of the militarisation of the region, while prompting questions about its potential repercussions, the objectives behind the move, and whether Somaliland is being positioned as a platform for Tel Aviv’s activities in the Horn of Africa.

Israeli targets

The war on Gaza exposed Israel’s targets, as Houthi missile attacks completely shut down the port of Eilat, bringing all activity at Israel’s only sea outlet on the Red Sea to a halt.

In light of this, Tel Aviv is seeking to reposition itself in a geographically small yet highly significant location, given Somaliland’s control of around 460 miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden and its control over the strategic port of Berbera — operated by DP World — making it the southern gateway to the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea.

This repositioning would allow Tel Aviv to expand its influence in Somaliland, and particularly along the Red Sea coast, as a potential intelligence and military base, to confront Egypt’s growing influence in Somalia, attempt to contain Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa, and support its Ethiopian ally in controlling the sources of the Nile and in the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with the downstream states, Egypt and Sudan.

Iran also figures in the background. From Israel’s perspective, the focus is on safeguarding its long-term strategic interests: securing commercial shipping and international sea lanes to the port of Eilat; containing the Houthi threat in Yemen, backed by Tehran; curbing the group’s ballistic missile capability at close range; and limiting the impact and reach of Iran’s presence in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Israeli military sources say Somaliland offers multiple options for Tel Aviv’s “long arm” — a reference to the Israeli air force — according to the Hebrew daily Maariv.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud........

© Middle East Monitor