The strong first-round performance of right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has raised questions over the future of Brazil’s policy towards Palestine, as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva heads into a closely contested run-off.

Bolsonaro secured around 47 per cent of the vote, compared with roughly 45 per cent for Lula, outperforming several pre-election polls and reinforcing broader gains by right-wing forces in congressional and regional races.

For supporters of Palestine, the result has made Brazil’s election about more than domestic politics.

Under Lula, Brazil has remained a strong supporter of Palestinian statehood and self-determination, while openly criticising Israeli settlement expansion and the war in Gaza. Flavio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has promised much closer ties with Israel and has backed moving Brazil’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, raising concerns over a possible shift in Brasilia’s position.

Under Lula, Brazil has remained a strong supporter of Palestinian statehood and self-determination, while openly criticising Israeli settlement expansion and the war in Gaza. Flavio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has promised much closer ties with Israel and has backed moving Brazil’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, raising concerns over a possible shift in Brasilia’s position.

Those concerns were reinforced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who welcomed Bolsonaro’s first-round lead and said he hoped to restore the “extraordinary friendship” between Israel and Brazil. He also wished Bolsonaro a “great victory” in the run-off, underlining how much is at stake diplomatically. A Bolsonaro presidency could bring a rapid improvement in Brazil-Israel relations after years of tension under Lula.

Brazil Could Be NEXT to FLIP to a Pro-Israel Government This does NOT seem Organic Lula was leading the polls just weeks ago. Now Bolsonaro has MAGICALLY surged ahead. Brazil is also investigating possible U.S. interference in the election. One by one, South America is being FLIPPED. — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) October 4, 2026

Brazil Could Be NEXT to FLIP to a Pro-Israel Government

This does NOT seem Organic

Lula was leading the polls just weeks ago. Now Bolsonaro has MAGICALLY surged ahead. Brazil is also investigating possible U.S. interference in the election.

One by one, South America is being FLIPPED.

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) October 4, 2026

Brazilian activist Fabio Bosco believes Bolsonaro’s strong showing reflects both an entrenched far-right constituency and wider frustration over Brazil’s economic conditions. According to Bosco, the far right has consolidated the support of roughly 30 %of the Brazilian population, while dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living, household indebtedness and low wages has created a broader pool of frustrated........

© Middle East Monitor