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Gulf warnings and fears of miscalculation preceded Trump’s pause in Iran showdown

115 0
26.03.2026

Donald Trump’s abrupt pause in his showdown with Iran followed warnings from Gulf states that the war was veering into a far more perilous phase and rising fears among officials in the region that Washington had misjudged Tehran’s readiness to escalate, regional sources and analysts said.

Gulf Arab states warned him directly that U.S. strikes ‌on Iran’s power plants would trigger Iranian retaliation on their own vital energy and desalination facilities, according to three regional sources who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Trump had threatened to hit Iran’s electricity grid unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global energy supplies from Gulf oil and gas producers. But Iran refused to yield, the strait stayed shut, oil markets spiked and global equities fell — ‌exposing the limits of Trump’s leverage.

Iran sent a warning to Gulf capitals, via an Arab intermediary, that any U.S. strike on its power plants ⁠would unleash unlimited retaliation, two other regional sources said.

"Trump totally miscalculated when he said 'you've got 48 hours to open the strait'," said Alan Eyre, ⁠a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert.

“Once it ⁠became clear Iran was serious about hitting Gulf energy infrastructure in response, he had to back down.”

Alex Vatanka of the Middle East ‌Institute said Tehran had surprised Trump with its ability to stay in the fight and its willingness to escalate without restraint. “They showed no inhibitions, no restrictions, no holdbacks.”

There was no immediate response to ⁠requests for comment for this article from the Iranian government, Gulf Arab states and the U.S.........

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