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A war meant to break Iran could leave Tehran stronger, and Gulf exposed

156 0
02.04.2026

If President Donald Trump ends the war with Iran without a deal, he risks leaving Tehran with a stranglehold over Middle East energy supplies and Gulf Arab oil and gas producers grappling with the fallout of a conflict they did not start or shape.

Instead of crushing Iran's theocratic rulers, it could leave ‌them stronger, emboldened by surviving weeks of U.S.-Israeli attacks, firing on Arab Gulf states and rattling global energy markets by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz.

In an interview with Reuters before a scheduled address to the nation on Wednesday, Trump said the United States would end its war on Iran "pretty quickly" and signalled on Tuesday he could wind down the war even without a deal.

An end to the war without clear guarantees on what ‌would follow would pose a significant danger for Gulf states, leaving the region to absorb the consequences of a war that would be ⁠concluding to Iran’s advantage.

"The issue is the cessation of the war without a real outcome," said Mohammed Baharoon, director of Dubai's B'huth Research ⁠Center. "He (Trump) might stop the war, but that doesn’t ⁠mean Iran will."

As long as U.S. forces remain stationed in bases in the Gulf, Iran will continue to threaten the region, he said.

That asymmetry lies at the heart of Gulf ‌concerns: that Iran could emerge from the war undefeated and with enhanced leverage - able to threaten shipping lanes, energy flows and regional stability - while Gulf countries are left to shoulder the economic ⁠and strategic costs of an unresolved conflict.

Baharoon said the erosion of freedom of navigation in the........

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