Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: This year’s El Niño might end up being the strongest in 140 years, Aung San Suu Kyi is confirmed alive by the Red Cross, and Malaysia takes an increasingly hard line on the Rohingya.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: This year’s El Niño might end up being the strongest in 140 years, Aung San Suu Kyi is confirmed alive by the Red Cross, and Malaysia takes an increasingly hard line on the Rohingya.

This year’s El Niño is underway, and it might end up being the strongest in 140 years. Southeast Asia will be hit hard.

The Asia-Pacific will be the worst-affected region, according to insurance giant Munich Re, with heat waves, drought, wildfires, and increased typhoon risk.

The region is already facing higher prices as result of the Iran war, and El Niño will only intensify that. As I have previously flagged, high food prices could lead to political instability in the region.

This year’s El Niño follows another strong El Niño event, which lasted from 2023 to 2024. Effects of that one, such as increased farmer debt, are still being felt in the region’s agricultural sector.

The effects on Southeast Asia will also be felt around the world, as the region is a major producer of staple crops.

Thailand and Vietnam are the world’s second and third-largest exporters of rice. Indonesia and Malaysia produce 85 percent of the world’s palm oil. Vietnam and Indonesia are the world’s second and fourth-largest producers of coffee. Rice and palm oil are particularly sensitive to climate anomalies. Experts have estimated that rice yields in the region could fall between 2 to 8 percent.

El Niño is predicted to last up until spring 2027, which means that effects on food supply and prices will persist into 2028.

The Philippines and Timor Leste are particularly high-risk countries, according to the World Food Program, with the main risk being droughts and floods affecting staple crops. Admittedly, these two countries are not agricultural powerhouses in the region. But Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam all face a serious drought risk, as well.

Some effects are already being felt.

Thailand received roughly 60 percent less rain than normal between January and April. The Bangkok export price for rice reached $490 per metric ton at the end of June, up 27.5 percent since the start of 2026.

Thailand’s Office of the National Water Resources has warned that the country could face a drought crisis more serious than the one in 2015, another El Niño year. Research by Krungthai, a major Thai bank, projected that El Niño could shave 0.5........

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