Middle East and North Africa

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. Rishi is on a much-deserved vacation this week, so FP’s Sam Skove has graciously stepped in to co-pilot this week’s edition with John.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The Iran war remains in a holding pattern, U.S. troop commitments to NATO shift, and John speaks with Czech Foreign Minister Petr Macinka.

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. Rishi is on a much-deserved vacation this week, so FP’s Sam Skove has graciously stepped in to co-pilot this week’s edition with John.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The Iran war remains in a holding pattern, U.S. troop commitments to NATO shift, and John speaks with Czech Foreign Minister Petr Macinka.

Groundhog Day: Iran War Edition

The Iran war is beginning to feel a bit like the movie Groundhog Day, with nearly the same series of events happening over and over again. For weeks now, we’ve seen the United States and Iran trade strikes amid a fragile cease-fire as U.S. President Donald Trump fluctuates between threatening to resume fighting and expressing optimism that the two sides will come to some kind of agreement to end the war. Several times, Trump and his advisors have suggested that a deal was in reach, only for no such deal to materialize.

That cycle seems to be playing out again this week. On Thursday, several outlets reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would extend the cease-fire and see the two sides begin talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The catch, though, is that neither Trump nor Iran’s leadership have approved it yet. (At a White House press conference on Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent refused to confirm that a deal had been reached, telling reporters that “it is all going to be the president’s decision.”)

Meanwhile, the United States and Iran are continuing to exchange fire, which could potentially derail the negotiations altogether. In retaliation for recent U.S. strikes, Iran on Thursday launched a ballistic missile toward a U.S. military base in Kuwait. The missile was intercepted, but U.S. Central Command decried the attack as an “egregious ceasefire violation.”

The Lebanon problem. Further complicating the situation is Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where there is also a flimsy cease-fire that constantly appears to be on the verge of collapsing. That conflict has had a devastating impact, killing more than 3,200 people in Lebanon and displacing hundreds of thousands more.

Though the Trump administration has sought to portray this conflict as........

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