Today former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is expected to receive his first day in a New York court after being seized in Caracas by U.S. special operations forces on Jan. 3 and sent to a Brooklyn prison with his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple face U.S. charges of “narco-terrorism,” among others.

Meanwhile, though, the discussion of what comes next in Venezuela risks heading off in vague, undemocratic directions. Venezuela watchers have become consumed by which of the country’s two women leaders—former vice president and now interim President Delcy Rodríguez and Nobel Peace Prize laureate and head of the democratic opposition María Corina Machado—is in favor with U.S. President Donald Trump. This topic is a red herring.

Today former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is expected to receive his first day in a New York court after being seized in Caracas by U.S. special operations forces on Jan. 3 and sent to a Brooklyn prison with his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple face U.S. charges of “narco-terrorism,” among others.

Meanwhile, though, the discussion of what comes next in Venezuela risks heading off in vague, undemocratic directions. Venezuela watchers have become consumed by which of the country’s two women leaders—former vice president and now interim President Delcy Rodríguez and Nobel Peace Prize laureate and head of the democratic opposition María Corina Machado—is in favor with U.S. President Donald Trump. This topic is a red herring.

The real matter is building a democratic transition after more than 20 years of institutional decay and polarization. The reforms required to achieve the conditions for democratic elections may take time, and they will almost certainly take longer than the less-than-a-year proposed by Machado.

But though the timing is in doubt, the first step is clear: a focused discussion, especially between the Trump and Rodríguez administrations, on the institutions, legal reforms, technology, and political commitments that need to be in place for a transition. Rather than fixate on the table stakes of which leader is up or down with Trump, public debate needs to shift to creating the specific conditions for meaningful elections and the benchmarks to that end demonstrating forward progress.

Trump administration officials have so far avoided engaging on substantive issues. The two U.S. cabinet secretaries who have visited Venezuela—Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum—said little about when elections might be held. Wright mentioned 18 to 24 months as a reasonable timeline, while others have cited 2030 as a target date for free and fair elections.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, has spoken only of three stages—stabilization, economic recovery and........

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