“WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” Donald Trump wrote on TruthSocial in late August, after he announced a fresh round of tariffs on exports from the United States’ northern neighbor. Seen from the lower latitudes, this was just another of the president’s tirades, straining both the caps-lock key and credulity, but in fact, the United States depends a great deal on Canada, to the tune of 4 million barrels of crude oil a day, plus electricity, aluminum, auto parts, and much else besides.

Viewed from the vicinity of the North Pole, the gap between Trump’s rants and reality is wider still: In the northern reaches of the continent they share, the United States needs Canada—desperately. As the melting ice caps uncover a new zone of economic competition in the Arctic, U.S. hopes of success depend on close cooperation with the country that the president is busy antagonizing.

“WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” Donald Trump wrote on TruthSocial in late August, after he announced a fresh round of tariffs on exports from the United States’ northern neighbor. Seen from the lower latitudes, this was just another of the president’s tirades, straining both the caps-lock key and credulity, but in fact, the United States depends a great deal on Canada, to the tune of 4 million barrels of crude oil a day, plus electricity, aluminum, auto parts, and much else besides.

Viewed from the vicinity of the North Pole, the gap between Trump’s rants and reality is wider still: In the northern reaches of the continent they share, the United States needs Canada—desperately. As the melting ice caps uncover a new zone of economic competition in the Arctic, U.S. hopes of success depend on close cooperation with the country that the president is busy antagonizing.

Sea Change: America’s New Great Game in the Arctic Circle, Rana Foroohar, Crown, 272 pp., $33, October 2026

Rana Foroohar’s new book, Sea Change: America’s New Great Game in the Arctic Circle, explains why this is an extraordinary act of self-harm. The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, and the receding ice is opening access to shipping lanes, fish stocks, energy, minerals, and a sea floor that can house communications cables. The economic opportunity unlocked will run into at least hundreds of billions of dollars; the late Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners, saw potential for $1 trillion in investments in infrastructure alone.

Trump is aware of the economic opportunity, but his response, ranging from musings about annexing Greenland to ordering the construction of 11 icebreakers in no-bid contracts........

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