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As Israel moves to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah appears to be calculating that a war of attrition would play to its strengths as a guerrilla group, allowing it to reprise its tactics from a previous occupation and force an Israeli retreat.

The group is facing a broad backlash across the country for plunging Lebanon into another conflict by launching rockets at Israel on March 2, two days after Israel assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has complained that Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel were meant to avenge the Iranian leadership and had “nothing to do with” Lebanon.

As Israel moves to occupy parts of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah appears to be calculating that a war of attrition would play to its strengths as a guerrilla group, allowing it to reprise its tactics from a previous occupation and force an Israeli retreat.

The group is facing a broad backlash across the country for plunging Lebanon into another conflict by launching rockets at Israel on March 2, two days after Israel assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has complained that Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel were meant to avenge the Iranian leadership and had “nothing to do with” Lebanon.

But last week, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem described the group’s actions against Israel as a “defensive battle for Lebanon and its citizens.” He said the only alternative to “inevitable confrontation and resistance” is surrendering to Israel and giving up land.

The Hezbollah rocket attacks have drawn Israeli airstrikes and a broad incursion of ground troops into southern Lebanon. Israel is pushing for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. It has bombed bridges connecting the Hezbollah-dominated south with the rest of the country and insinuated that a long-term occupation might follow. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on March 24 that Israel will “control” territory in up to the Litani River—about 19 miles from the Israeli border. Troops would remain there until Hezbollah is disarmed, two former Israeli security officials told Foreign Policy.

Israel apparently........

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