The previous week’s article had focused on the growth performance of the economy from July 2024 to March 2025. An assessment was made of the likely level of investment in 2024-25, after the abysmally low level in 2023-24.

An analysis was also undertaken of the extraordinary drop in the rate of inflation to a low single-digit. The positive development is that this was due to a big fall in the rates of inflation in food and fuel prices.

This article focuses on the trends in the balance of payments and in public finances during the period, July 2024 to March 2025. At the end, an assessment is made of the unemployment and poverty situation.

The balance of payments presents a mixed picture. There has been much kudos that a positive surplus has been generated in the current account of dollar 1.9 billion, as compared to a deficit of dollar 1.6 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24.

There has actually been a larger deficit in the balance of trade in goods and services. It has gone up from dollar 18.3 billion to dollar 21 billion, implying thereby a big increase of almost 15 percent. There is also an increase in profit repatriation and interest payments of 14 percent. These developments would normally have implied a significantly larger current account deficit.

However, it has come as a very pleasant surprise that there has been a very big increase in remittances of 33.8 percent. They have jumped up from dollar 21 billion to........

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