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The deadly war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has led to serious military and economic impacts across the region that produces much of the world’s oil and gas. A global spike in fuel prices could further inflame an affordability crisis that President Donald Trump has repeatedly called a “hoax” created by Democrats.

However, higher oil and gas prices would be a boon for U.S. fracking companies that supported Trump’s presidential campaign. It could also fuel more profits for the rapidly expanding liquified natural gas (LNG) export industry in the United States.

After the U.S. and Israeli bombardment began, Iran announced it would close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea that sees about 20 million barrels of oil — roughly 20 percent of global consumption — pass through on tanker ships each day. Additionally, Qatar’s state-run energy firm announced it had shut down LNG production and shipping after Iranian drones struck the two major LNG complexes in recent days, putting about 20 percent of the global fossil gas supply at risk. Qatar is the world’s top gas exporter after the United States.

“With Qatar shutting down its LNG processing and LNG export capacity due to safety/security issues, the U.S. LNG export industry is primed to rake in massive profits,” said Tyson Slocum, director of the watchdog group Public Citizen’s energy program, in an email. “Natural gas prices in Europe jumped 50 percent on the news that Qatar was shutting in LNG.”

Travel and energy infrastructure across the region have shut down due to the fighting, including at a central Saudi Aramco refinery. Oil-rich Gulf states hosting U.S. bases and personnel have also been on the receiving end of Iran’s blowback, which has hit both military and civilian infrastructure, threatening a central nerve of the petrodollar economy. The spread of the war has been catastrophic for the region — but not for U.S. oil and gas companies.

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