For years, Western policymakers clung to the belief that the clerical regime in Tehran represented a stable pillar of Middle Eastern politics. That illusion is rapidly collapsing. The Islamic Republic now faces a convergence of crises unprecedented since 1979 – military setbacks, economic decline, diplomatic isolation, and growing public anger. Increasingly, the regime’s survival depends upon repression by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose expanding influence has transformed Iran from a revolutionary theocracy into an entrenched military dictatorship.

President Donald Trump’s rapid rejection of Tehran’s ceasefire proposal signals that Washington may finally recognize the nature of the challenge. Iran’s demands – compensation for war damage, recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and guarantees against future military action – reveal a regime seeking time to recover, regroup, and rearm. The West should resist that temptation.

Inside Iran, conditions worsen daily. Inflation has devastated ordinary households. Food prices continue to surge beyond the reach of millions. Rice, chicken, cooking oil, and other essentials have become luxuries for many families. The Iranian rial has collapsed in value, while sanctions, corruption, war, and internet restrictions have paralyzed large sections of the economy.

Such conditions rarely sustain authoritarian systems indefinitely. Economic despair erodes fear, and hardship weakens obedience. Iranian leaders clearly understand this danger. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s repeated calls for “national cohesion” reflect mounting anxiety within the ruling establishment. While state propaganda blames “enemy plots” and “economic warfare,” ordinary Iranians confront a harsher reality every day through unemployment, shuttered businesses, and shrinking incomes.

The regime’s regional position has also deteriorated........

© Townhall