The US-Israeli campaign against Iran reached its five-week mark on Saturday, with no clear mechanism to end the conflict in sight.

Five weeks of running to shelters and mass casualty events from Iranian missiles seems like an eternity to many Israelis, but it is still within the 4-6 week timeline offered by the White House early in the war.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, more disciplined than US President Donald Trump, has preferred not to give firm estimates on how long the war might last, but said last week it was “definitely beyond the halfway point” in terms of its missions.

Trump’s attempts to bring the conflict to a successful termination through direct talks with the Iranians seem to be leading nowhere, as expected.

Mediators told The Wall Street Journal on Friday that negotiations have hit a “dead end.” Trump, meanwhile, extended his deadline for Iran a second time, vowing to rain “hell” on the country if it fails to reach a ceasefire deal or open the Strait of Hormuz by Monday.

So, what happens next?

Two optimistic scenarios are unlikely to play out. Despite repeated assertions from Israel that there are “visible cracks” in the Iranian regime, it’s not about to fall. US intelligence assessments say that the regime is likely to remain in place, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holding even more control.

Nor are the Iranians going to run out of missiles or drones. Israel and the US have destroyed hundreds of Iranian missiles and launchers, but Israel believes that the country has over 1,000 left, according to an IAF intelligence officer, and will be able to keep firing for as long as the war goes on.

Iran is also proving able to quickly dig out launchers from underground sites that are hit by the US and Israel and put them back into use, The New York Times has reported.

The war looks to be headed toward an escalation, then, in what might........

© The Times of Israel