The reopening of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz may have calmed oil markets, but it would be a mistake to confuse the return of traffic with the return of certainty. The recent crisis has underlined a reality that energy-importing nations have long known but often ignored: a narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman continues to wield disproportionate influence over the global economy.

For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has been viewed primarily through the lens of military deterrence. The assumption was that the presence of the United States Navy and the strategic interests of major powers would prevent any prolonged disruption to the flow of oil and gas. Yet the latest confrontation demonstrates that leverage in the 21st century need not take the form of a formal blockade. Even the perception of danger can alter shipping patterns, delay cargoes, raise insurance costs and inject volatility into global markets. The episode has revealed the limits of military power as a guarantor of commercial confidence.

Tankers may be moving again, but many shipowners remain cautious. Markets respond not merely to the absence of conflict but to the presence of predictability. When navigation........

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