Deepening Ties

Anand Kumar

The Statesman

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The February 18-22 visit of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to India marks a decisive moment in the evolution of India-Brazil ties. Coming at a time of global economic turbulence, technological transformation, and renewed geopolitical contestation, the visit signalled that two of the largest democracies of the Global South are prepared to move beyond rhetorical solidarity and craft a structured, forward-looking partnership.

The optics were important ~ Lula’s keynote at the India-AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, his wide-ranging talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the presence of an unusually large ministerial and business delegation ~ but the substance of the visit matters far more. Together, the two sides appear intent on upgrading their 2006 strategic partnership into a comprehensive, multi-sectoral alignment suited to a fragmented global order. The timing of the visit is critical. Developing countries are navigating the aftershocks of aggressive tariff regimes and supply chain disruptions associated with the return of protectionist trade policies in the United States under President Donald Trump.

Both India and Brazil have faced tariff pressures, underscoring the vulnerability of exportdependent sectors and the risks of overreliance on traditional Western markets. In this context, the decision to set an ambitious bilateral trade target of $30 billion by 2030 is not merely aspirational ~ it is strategic. Bilateral trade, which crossed $15 billion in 2025 with a notable growth rate, is now being framed as a pillar of economic resilience. By committing to reduce non-tariff barriers, expand the India-MERCOSUR Preferential Trade Agreement, and facilitate electronic certificates of origin, both sides are signalling seriousness about structural trade reform.

What distinguishes this phase of the relationship is its focus on critical minerals and industrial supply chains. India’s quest to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies has become an urgent national priority, particularly as advanced manufacturing, renewable energy systems, and defence technologies increasingly rely on these inputs. Brazil, endowed with vast reserves of iron ore and critical minerals, emerges as a natural partner. The mining and minerals cooperation pact signed in New Delhi is therefore a geoeconomic instrument. It promises collaboration in exploration, mining, steel sector infrastructure, and technological transfer.

For India, which has ambitious steel capacity expansion plans to support infrastructure and industrialization, assured access to raw materials is indispensable. For Brazil, deeper integration into India’s industrial growth story offers long-term demand stability and diversification. The visit also reaffirmed the complementary nature of the two economies. While Brazil is often described as a renewable energy superpower with expertise in biofuels and sustainable fuels, India has positioned itself as a digital public infrastructure pioneer and emerging technology hub. The Joint Declaration on Digital Partnership for the Future reflects this complementarity. Cooperation in artificial intelligence, digital public infrastructure, cybersecurity, and data governance moves the partnership into the domain of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Lula’s call at the AI Impact Summit for global AI regulation under a United Nations framework aligns with India’s advocacy of inclusive and development-oriented technology governance. Their coordination in forums such as BRICS and IBSA on AI norms underscores the ambition to shape, rather than merely adopt, global standards. Defence and security cooperation has similarly acquired new depth. The strengthening of defence industrial collaboration, including maintenance arrangements for Scorpene-class submarines and enhanced trilateral cooperation involving Indian shipyards, demonstrates pragmatic alignment.

The potential expansion of aerospace collaboration, including Brazilian aircraft manufacturing investments and maintenance facilities in India, points toward industrial co-production rather than transactional procurement. This is significant for two countries seeking strategic autonomy in a world increasingly defined by great power rivalry. Joint condemnation of terrorism, expanded cooperation against terror financing, and coordination on cybersecurity further reinforce the security dimension of the partnership. Health and pharmaceutical cooperation is another quietly transformative area. India’s global reputation as a supplier of affordable generic medicines aligns well with Brazil’s public health priorities.

The regulatory cooperation agreement between Brazil’s health authority and India’s drug regulator promises smoother approvals, technology transfer, and local production. In an era when equitable access to medicines remains contested, the two countries’ reaffirmed support for the World Health Organization and universal health coverage reflects their longstanding advocacy for health as a global public good. Climate and energy transition form yet another pillar. Brazil’s hosting of COP30 in Belém and its leadership in biofuels dovetail with India’s activism in renewable energy alliances.

Cooperation in sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen production, solar and wind energy, and even nuclear power underscores the breadth of ambition. By linking energy transition with industrial cooperation ~ particularly in steel and critical minerals ~ the two sides are attempting to create a value chain approach to climate action. Rather than treating climate as a regulatory burden, they are positioning it as an opportunity for green industrial growth. Multilateral coordination remains central to the political narrative of the visit. Both India and Brazil have long campaigned for reform of the United Nations Security Council and mutual support for permanent membership.

In a period of contested global governance, their renewed commitment to amplifying the voice of the Global South carries symbolic and practical significance. The suggestion of greater use of local currencies in bilateral trade, even as speculation about a common BRICS currency was dismissed, reflects a calibrated effort to reduce exposure to dollar volatility without destabilizing existing financial systems. It is a reminder that strategic autonomy today involves economic instruments as much as diplomatic rhetoric.

The people-to-people dimension should not be overlooked. The extension of multiple-entry visas, expanded student exchanges, audio-visual cooperation, and cultural initiatives add societal ballast to what might otherwise be a state-driven partnership. Long-term strategic ties require constituencies of support, and both governments appear conscious of this necessity. Yet, the success of this ambitious agenda will depend on implementation. Trade targets have been set before; agreements have been signed in the past. What differentiates this moment is the scale and specificity of commitments ~ from digital governance to mineral supply chains, from defence co-production to pharmaceutical regulation.

If followed through, these initiatives could create a dense web of interdependence that insulates the relationship from political fluctuations. In a world where major power competition often sidelines the interests of developing nations, India and Brazil are attempting to craft a third space ~ neither anti-West nor anti-China, but assertively pro-Global South. The framing of the partnership as a “win-win” is not mere diplomatic cliché; it reflects structural complementarities and shared developmental aspirations. As India prepares to host the 2026 BRICS Summit, the deepening of ties with Brazil sends a clear signal that emerging powers are serious about shaping the norms, supply chains, and governance structures of the twenty-first century.

President Lula’s visit to New Delhi may ultimately be remembered not simply for the agreements signed, but for the strategic clarity it conveyed. India and Brazil, once seen as distant democracies connected mainly through multilateral forums, are steadily building a partnership rooted in tangible economic, technological, and security cooperation. If they succeed, their collaboration could become a template for South-South engagement in an age of uncertainty ~ pragmatic, diversified, and anchored in shared agency rather than dependency.

(The writer is Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

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Deepening Ties

Anand Kumar

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