Even Elon Musk has to face a dose of reality every once in a while. Technology and politics have forced him to turn his gaze away from Mars, for the moment at least, to put Americans back on the surface of the Moon before China gets there. But it might already be too late. If America has any chance of beating China, it now seems inevitable that the next American human landing on the Moon will not be by Musk’s Starship but using a craft being developed by his rival Jeff Bezos.

Announcing the pivot, Musk wrote on X: “For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20 years. The overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.”

Since its inception in 2002 Mars has been the focus for SpaceX. The company faced a series of setbacks on the road to becoming the world’s most prolific satellite launcher – at its nadir it was one failure away from collapse had its Falcon 1 rocket failed for the fourth time in 2008. It didn’t, though satellite makers remained wary and the craft’s projected launch rate was insufficient to be profitable. What followed was a stroke of genius. Falcon would launch SpaceX’s own satellite constellation – Starlink – whilst growing its reputation,........

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