“Please pretend that I am running,” Trump told Republicans at their recent convention in Dallas.

Well, no one has to pretend. Democrats agree completely. They also want voters to view the November elections as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.

Both sides have good reasons to follow these similar campaign strategies. But in the end, both can’t be right. One party is making a better bet than the other — and today, the odds strongly favor the Democrats.

Trump’s reasoning is clear. He remains by far the most dominant and magnetic figure in American politics, and MAGA Nation, his core base of support, is much more loyal to him personally than to a party or a set of policies.

Playing on his potent appeal is the best way to motivate support for Republican candidates.

King Louis XIV of France is credited with the famous (likely apocryphal) statement “L’etat, c’est moi,” or “I am the state.” And Trump is increasingly acting the same way, converting every issue into one of personal influence or devotion.

This week, for example, he dismissed rising concerns about artificial intelligence as a “hoax” and proclaimed on Truth Social,........

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