A Journalist Covered a Missile Strike. Then the Death Threats Started.

By Sean Anthony Guillory and Amy J. Nelson

Dr. Guillory is the chief executive of Betting Intelligence. Dr. Nelson is a senior fellow with the Future Security Program at New America.

A military correspondent for The Times of Israel, Emanuel Fabian, began receiving death threats last month. His offense: reporting that an Iranian ballistic missile had struck Israeli soil on March 10. Gamblers on the prediction platform Polymarket had wagered more than $14 million on whether Iran would strike Israel on that day, and those who stood to lose flooded Mr. Fabian with demands that he change his story — that he reframe the missile as intercepted debris and let them collect. Some offered him a cut of their winnings. Mr. Fabian refused and contacted the police.

The story seems absurd, but it may become typical. Over the last few months, traders placed bets on a raid in Venezuela suspiciously close to the........

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