An unpopular Republican president responsible for a catastrophic war in the Middle East helps Democrats regain control of both houses of Congress. That’s what happened in 2006, when George W Bush was US president. Twenty years later Democrats are hoping for a repeat of that result, which was the last time they had a truly great midterm election. Today’s election may be especially consequential with some crucial questions to be resolved.

Will Donald Trump try to interfere with or discredit the elections?

Trump denied the results of the 2020 election and backed an insurrection to overturn them, so it would not be a surprise if he again meddles in the democratic process. The most likely way he would do so today would be to send federal agents to polling places to deter voters who might be afraid of immigration officers. It is also possible that vigilantes acting in Trump’s name and mindful of his pardoning of January 6th insurrectionists will take independent action to deter Democratic voters. Such voter suppression tactics would be effective because there is no real way to count votes that haven’t been cast, but they would only swing results in very close elections.

But it seems that Trump is focused less on altering election results than on discrediting them after the fact. Trump has offered a $1 million reward to any American who reports a case of voter fraud that leads to arrest and conviction. That smacks of desperation, as – despite Trump’s repeated claims – voter fraud is almost non-existent.

And yet claims of fraud could be used as a pretence by Republican state officials to refuse to certify the election of Democrats. Pay close attention to what happens in Alaska where staff linked to the Democratic candidate Mary Peltola allegedly helped recruit the independent candidacy of Dan Sullivan to confuse voters........

© The Irish Times