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Republicans see political gold in Mamdani property tax proposal

Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s (D) “last-resort” proposal to raise property taxes in New York City has political observers questioning whether his gambit to get New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to back a wealth tax could backfire for Democrats ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

While the property tax proposal has drawn resistance from several prominent Democrats, some strategists say it also hands Republicans an opening to cast their opponents — both in New York and across the country — as out of touch with everyday concerns about affordability.

“It’s an example … that Republicans can use on a national scale,” Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said, “because this is the first of many costly proposals that Mamdani is likely going to have.”

Bonjean said the proposed 9.5 percent hike “would be extreme” and would feed a GOP narrative that Mamdani represents “socialist Democrats” who would “take our country in the wrong direction by hurting middle-income families.”

“He’s basically the new Nancy Pelosi for Republicans to talk about,” he added.

Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf similarly expressed concern that Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), would be perceived as moving the party too far left and cost centrist Democrats their seats with his property tax proposal.

“Mamdani is the best thing that has happened to Republicans since Ronald Reagan,” Sheinkopf told The Hill. “Because what he will do is he will push people who are wavering in the center over to Republicans because they won’t have any choice.”

Sheinkopf acknowledged that Mamdani ran a successful campaign based on a clear message of affordability, but he said this proposal undermines the pledge to bring down costs.

“The DSA, under the leadership of Mamdani and others like him across the country, will … do the exact opposite of what they talk about. They will make the cities and locales unaffordable because they’ll tax the people that pay the taxes out of existence, and they’ll leave those places,” he said.

“They will put centrist governors or centrist officials that they have to deal with, like Kathy Hochul, in untenable positions that, frankly, can cost them their offices,” Sheinkopf continued.

Mamdani on Tuesday proposed raising property taxes by 9.5 percent and dipping into the city’s reserve fund as a “last resort” to balance the budget, which the city is required to do by law. The budget deficit is on track to reach $5.4 billion over two years. 

The mayor stressed that his preferred method is for Hochul to agree to a wealth tax on New Yorkers making $1 million or more a year and acknowledged that a property tax hike would not only affect the wealthy but also “working- and middle-class New Yorkers.”

“If we cannot follow this first path,” Mamdani said, “we will be forced onto a much more damaging path of last resort — one where we have to use the only tools at the city’s disposal: raising property taxes and raiding our reserves.”

Hochul, a centrist Democrat up for reelection this year, downplayed the likelihood of a city property tax hike, suggesting other accounting measures could make it unnecessary. But she made clear she opposes both paths Mamdani outlined.

“I don’t support a property tax increase on New Yorkers and I’m not wavering on my position that I don’t want to drive more people out of our state by increasing taxes in what is already a high-tax state,” Hochul said.

While some strategists see Mamdani’s proposal as potentially hurting Hochul’s reelection effort, others suggested the moment could offer her a way of firmly establishing herself as a moderate candidate. 

“I see this as a gift from Mamdani to Hochul,” Republican strategist Bill F. B. O’Reilly told The Hill. 

“He demands higher taxes to placate his DSA base, and Governor Hochul gets to look like the moderate in rejecting them,” he continued. “It’s a neat little play.”

A former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party, Basil Smikle, criticized the proposed property tax hike and expressed concern that Hochul could be blamed. 

“Property tax hikes often unfairly burden renters, co-op owners and owners of small one- and two-family homes who are largely people of color and Democratic base voters,” Smikle told The Hill.

“Though these hikes don’t need the governor’s approval, she will likely get blamed by city residents and suburban residents who often use New York City’s politics against statewide Democrats,” he continued. 

Bryan Lesswing, a former senior adviser to Hochul, dismissed the “back-and-forth” between Mamdani and Hochul as standard during budget seasons and suggested Hochul was not ceding any ground on the issue of affordability.

“Voters have been abundantly clear about what’s top of mind for them: Don’t take away their health care and don’t drive up their everyday costs,” Lesswing told The Hill. “Republicans are doing both and that should worry them in November.”

A spokesperson for the New York State Democratic Party did not address the property tax proposal explicitly but touted Hochul’s efforts to cut taxes for the middle class, and they suggested it was “quite the contrast” to her GOP opponent.

“No matter their spin of the week, New Yorkers know exactly what Republicans in this state are running on: A platform of jacking up costs on New York families, thanks to Trump’s expensive, illegal tariffs and his broken economic policies,” spokesperson Addison Dick said in a statement to The Hill.

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