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Senate Democrats press CFTC chair on prediction markets

A group of Senate Democrats sent a letter Monday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, urging him to clarify his position on prediction markets. 

Democratic Sens. Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), Cory Booker (N.J.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Tim Kaine (Va.), Jacky Rosen (Nev.) and Adam Schiff (Calif.) outlined their concerns to the CFTC chair regarding prediction contracts that “incentivize physical injury or death.” 

They highlighted Polymarket, a top prediction market platform, allowing users to bet on whether the Artemis II spaceship will explode, when Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will be removed from power and when Russian forces will take the Ukrainian city of Myrnohad. 

In August, Polymarket announced that Donald Trump Jr. had joined its advisory board after his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, made a strategic investment in the company. Days later, the CFTC greenlit Polymarket’s bid to enter the U.S. market.

In a video he posted to the social platform X last week, Selig said the commission will challenge state attempts to regulate prediction markets, which he argued infringes on the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” over the platforms. 

“They provide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks, like increases in temperature and energy price spikes,” Selig added on prediction markets. “They also serve as an important check on our news media and our information streams.”

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) pushed back on Selig’s remarks, saying prediction markets “are destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men” and “have no place” in his state.

Concerns over prediction markets were sparked on Capitol Hill in the wake of a Polymarket user betting more than $32,000 to make more than $400,000 that Maduro would be out by Jan. 31. The user created the account in December and placed wagers on just four events — each related to the operation to capture Maduro — between Dec. 27 and Jan. 3. Maduro was taken into custody on the latter date.

The senators wrote that such contracts “present dangerous national security risks, including creating incentives to incite violence, foment geopolitical conflicts, and disclose classified information.”

They also note that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which eventually led to the creation of the CFTC, prohibits the listing of contracts that are “contrary to the public interest,” including those relating to terrorism, assassination and war. 

“These contracts further risk incentivizing real-world harm by creating financial rewards linked to destabilizing events or physical injury, and by encouraging actors to influence or precipitate those outcomes for personal profit,” the lawmakers wrote.

The lawmakers asked Selig to clarify whether CFTC will prohibit prediction contracts “that resolve upon death,” and if contracts regarding Maduro, Artemis II and Ukraine violate the CEA. They specifically said the Artemis II contract “provides a market incentive for mission sabotage” when the ship heads to space later this year.

The lawmakers gave Selig until March 9 to respond. 

“We expect the CFTC to enforce the law, and stand ready to provide the Commission the resources it needs to fulfill its statutory mandate,” they wrote.

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