Poll: Talarico, Paxton hold slim edge heading into Tuesday primary

A new poll from Emerson College shows that Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) have single-digit leads in their respective Texas Senate primary races.

The survey, released Sunday, found that 52 percent of likely Democratic primary voters backed Talarico, while 47 percent backed Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D). Paxton, meanwhile, received support from four in 10 likely GOP primary voters, with Cornyn garnering support from 36 percent of voters and 17 percent backing Rep. Wesley Hunt (R). 

Both results are within the margin of error.

With just two days before the primary in the Lone Star State, the Texas Senate race is in the national spotlight. Cornyn, seeking a fifth term in the upper chamber, is facing his most formidable GOP challenger yet in Paxton, a firebrand attorney general who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Texas Senate. 

President Trump has not endorsed either of three candidates, saying last month he likes “all three of them, actually.”

On the Democratic side, the 36-year-old Talarico has risen in stature against Crockett, who is attempting to rise to the Senate after taking office in the lower chamber just over three years ago. 

Early voting in the primaries began on Feb. 17. Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that 58 percent of early voters backed Talarico, while 41 percent backed Crockett. By contrast, half of those who plan to vote on election day support Crockett, while 39 percent back Talarico, Kimball added.

Cornyn, meanwhile, leads Paxton among early voters, 38 percent to 34 percent. Among likely election day voters, Paxton leads 44 percent to 32 percent. 

Kimball also noted that Hunt’s presence in the race “appears likely to hold Paxton and Cornyn” under the 50 percent needed to avoid a May 26 runoff. 

Cornyn and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) have warned that either Talarico or Crockett could defeat Paxton if the Texas attorney general beats Cornyn. A Democrat has not won a Senate election in Texas since former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen won his final race in 1988.

For its latest poll, Emerson College surveyed 850 likely Democratic voters or those who have already voted, along with 547 likely GOP primary voters or those who have already voted. The two results have a margin of error of 3.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.

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