Canada’s trade war with the US won’t end with tariffs

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DC Bureau: Tariffs and the Campaign

DC Bureau: Tariffs and the Campaign

America’s global trade war is entering a more dangerous phase. Canada’s counter-tariffs, which took effect Sept. 8, target roughly $27.6 billion of American goods. Ottawa has conspicuously left energy and other strategically important commodities off the table. 

Decision-makers in Washington may perceive that restraint as an affirmation of America holding a stronger position. The other possibility, however, is that Canada is saving a card it would rather not play just yet. 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford was among the most vocal north of the border, warning that “everything is on the table” should the trade war escalate. Immediate concern from his threat was stymied by the fact that Ford holds no control over Canada’s international trade regime. His warning nevertheless matters, as it identifies a vulnerability that Washington has thus far been unsuccessful in eliminating: critical minerals, and nickel in particular. 

Nickel is not a mineral that is particularly scarce, with global supply exceeding consumption every year since 2022, according to U.S. Geological Survey. Indonesia has the world’s largest nickel reserves and is the leading producer of mined nickel, whereas Canada supplies roughly 44 percent of U.S. primary nickel imports. The U.S. has only one operating primary nickel mine — the Eagle Mine in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. This produced around 10,000 metric tons of nickel in 2025, enough to address a mere 4.5 percent of total U.S. nickel........

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