FOR INSIDERS: Iran’s flex in Strait of Hormuz puts Trump on back foot

Iran is flexing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz, putting the U.S. on its back foot as it looks to resume shipping through the key passageway and curb Tehran’s nuclear program.

Tehran ratcheted up tensions this weekend in the strait, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas flow, targeting cargo ships and warning that alternate routes for vessels would lead to delays. The U.S. responded with targeted retaliatory strikes on Iran. 

After four days of back-and-forth strikes, both sides agreed to halt attacks, and President Trump said Iran requested a meeting with U.S. officials in Qatar — leading to a rebound in shipping traffic and a decline in global oil prices. 

However, Middle East experts said Iran has shown that it isn’t scared to shut down the Hormuz Strait when it wants to back Trump into a corner, exposing the vulnerability of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in mid-June. 

“It doesn’t really matter how much the U.S. bombs back, because the real audience for Iran strikes is not the U.S., it’s shippers and insurers and crews who are equally threatened by Iranian attacks, no matter how much the U.S. responds,” Harrison Mann, a former U.S. Army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency Middle East/​Africa Regional Center, said in an interview with The Hill. 

Mann said Iran is “trying to demonstrate seriousness on what they now consider their core demands, one of them being Iranian de facto control” of the strait.

“Iran thinks that in the MOU it’s basically been given Hormuz, and it is testing that theory, not in the negotiating room, it’s testing it in reality to see what will be accepted over time,” William F. Wechsler, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combatting terrorism, said in an interview with The Hill. 

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff, the president’s top negotiators, are in Qatar this week, with a meeting slated for Tuesday with the country’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, to discuss the MOU. U.S. and Iran delegations are expected to participate separately in technical talks with mediators from Qatar and Pakistan on Wednesday, a senior administration official said.

“We’re not expecting any high-level Iranian officials at the moment, but as I said, the technical meetings are ongoing,” Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters.

The diplomatic engagement comes after the U.S.........

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