Voters in regional New South Wales have been putting a stick in the eye of major parties for decades.

Before the community independents changed the urban political landscape, rural and regional electorates in the state had elected independents and defectors from the old parties – Peter Andren, Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Andrew Gee.

Saturday’s solid win by One Nation’s David Farley is just the most recent example.

Whether the humiliation of the Liberal party is the beginning of the end for the party that was “fleshed out” in 1944 in an electorate that delivered its extraordinary defeat, or the end of the beginning of the conservative party’s reinvention, will take a while to play out.

But for the party that has dominated Australian politics for 75 years to receive just over 12% of the vote speaks to a remarkable loss of public confidence.

Byelections are usually a judgment on the ruling party – as the local government elections in Britain have shown. In this case, it was a judgment on the opposition, although some traditional Labor voters also found their way to One Nation.

Whether One Nation is able to actually hold on to its newly elected representative or develop policies that have any chance of being implemented will also take a while to play out.

If history is any guide, it is........

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