Everybody wants the Jewish vote. As if there were one. Jews are educated, generally liberal. Although they comprise only about 2% of the electorate, they vote in high numbers, overwhelmingly for Democrats. In 2024, 79% chose Kamala Harris. They are also assumed to be steadfast friends of Israel, no matter what it does. Republicans, waging a fake war on antisemitism while courting white supremacists, consider Jews increasingly up for grabs.

Nationally, Jewish Americans are concentrated in a few bright blue spots. A 2020 map from the Jewish Electorate Institute showed a third of Jews living in 20 congressional districts – out of 435 – most of them in New York, New Jersey, California and (purple) Florida. Of these, only one sent a Republican to Washington.

Today, it’s two. Florida’s 21st district switched parties only after falling victim to redistricting in 2022. The other outlier has elected the pro-Israel, anti-immigration Republican Chris Smith every term since 1981. Why? The mapmakers’ explanation: New Jersey fourth district includes Lakewood, where half the residents are ultra-Orthodox – scrupulously, ceaselessly observant. Unsurprisingly, among white voters, regular religious service attendance is a big predictor of conservatism.

In other words, in Lakewood, Orthodox may be more salient that Jewish.

In fact, if pro-Israel candidates are looking for votes, even Jewish is no longer salient. White Evangelical Christians are more firmly supportive of Israel than American Jews. The US is home to the largest population of Christian Zionists in the world, numbering more than 30 million, a third of whom belong to Christians United for Israel, the largest Zionist organization is the US.

The Bible belt churches these people attend preach that the founding of Israel in 1948 was part of God’s plan to bring about the End Times, and the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East are the mayhem and destruction preceding the second coming of Christ (when nonbelievers – including Jews – will drown in the Lake of Fire).

While the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) spends........

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