A new survey offers some novel insight into Trump’s corroding coalition.

The survey, which I (Abbott) conducted with the scholar and author Joan C Williams, sampled about 1,940 Trump voters and captured the attitudes of the broad coalition that brought Trump to the White House in 2024. Respondents were asked if they intended to vote Republican in the 2028 presidential election and, in particular, their views on immigration – Trump’s strongest issue.

The results paint a bleak picture for Republicans (but not necessarily a rosy one for the Democrats). The survey finds that approximately 20% of 2024 Trump voters may not vote Republican in 2028, and that almost 57% of voters who switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 are considering abandoning the Republican party in 2028. Many among the much-talked-about group of voters that gave him the edge he needed to win the popular vote – working-class, blue-collar voters and lower-income moderates – are now on the fence.

The bulk of the now-uncertain Trump voters come from the lower end of the class hierarchy. About 31% of the lowest-income 2024........

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