Every Pakistani farmer lives with uncertainty about the fate of their crops, the burden of fertiliser bills paid on credit, and sometimes praying for rain, other times hoping it does not rain. This is not a failure of individual resilience in the age of climate change; it is a policy failure, decades in the making. Climate shocks that used to happen once in a generation now arrive with a regularity that makes planning nearly impossible. And yet, Pakistan has almost nothing in place to financially protect its farmers when the worst happens.

The State Bank of Pakistan's latest report puts a number on what this failure has cost: nearly $59 billion in economic losses from climate disasters over the past three decades, $29.3 billion between 1992 and 2021, and then another $28 billion in a single year when the 2022 floods submerged a third of the country.

That second figure exceeded the entire global disbursements of UN climate funds at the time. This past monsoon season, 2.23 million acres of cropland were destroyed, with $1.5 billion in agricultural damage in a single year. And this spring, eleven of fifteen major wheat-producing districts recorded rainfall between 100% and 350% above normal during the very weeks when wheat should have been harvested. Pakistan emits less than 1% of global greenhouse gases. It is absorbing consequences far beyond its share.

Agriculture employs 37% of Pakistan's workforce and contributes up to 24% of GDP. It also operates almost entirely without a financial safety net. When climate shocks hit, farmers do not respond by investing more carefully next season. They respond by disinvesting — selling livestock, withdrawing children from school, planting the following year with borrowed money and borrowed hope.

Governments have tried to address this, but through the wrong instruments. Support price announcements arrive after sowing decisions are........

© The Friday Times