In the last two weeks, I published three pieces in the Friday Times, in which I proposed a “controlled, negotiated” economic default. It was not a random statement that I made on a TV programme. It was the outcome of long conversations with those who understand the economy and the system – the very “system” that the DG ISPR, Lt Gen Ahmad Sharif, declared needs a total reset. This term, “system reset”, was used by Dr Hasnain Javed on Federal Post programme Political Zone, while talking to the former finance minister, Dr Salman Shah. I am not saying that Mohsin Naqvi or Lt Gen Sharif picked up our phrase in their recent statements, but their statements do endorse what we have been saying for over a year: the economy has collapsed, and the time for normal economic reforms and structural changes has passed.

How we got here is another story, and everyone can add something on how it happened. What is important to figure out are the factors that have compelled the military spokesman and the interior minister, who is also known as the establishment’s voice in the federal cabinet, to make these statements. To be able to understand this, we need to go back to the drawing board and see how it all began.

Following the general election of 8 February 2024, the general narrative was that the Imran government had messed up the economy and that the country was near default. The PMLN presented its résumé of having a highly capable and experienced team, and a track record of development work, especially in Punjab. They were able to impress the establishment and persuade it of their personal connections with the........

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