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A Dangerous Escalation In The Middle East And Its Global Consequences

46 0
20.03.2026

We are in a campaign in which we are bringing the full strength of the IDF to the battle, as never before, to ensure our existence and our future. But we are also bringing to this campaign the assistance of the United States, my friend, US President Donald Trump, and the US military. This coalition of forces allows us to do what I have yearned to do for 40 years: smite the terror regime hip and thigh. This is what I promised – and this is what we shall do (statement by Prime Minister Netanyahu – 1 March 2026).

Each sentence reflects intoxication of power, arrogance, and a sense of invincibility, superiority, and bloodletting. He reckons with the reality that he has been harbouring the dream of destroying Iran, only to clear his way to Greater Israel. Was Iran a terror or a phalanx against Israeli expansionism? Former US President Barack Obama revealed a few days ago that Netanyahu had also been pleading with him for an invasion of Iran, and that he had always advocated a diplomatic approach to keep Iran away from nuclear capability.

Finally, he duped the capricious Donald Trump, who was lyrically eloquent against wars in his election campaign, and presented himself later as a man of peace. Duped by his deceptive demeanour, some leaders endorsed him for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

President Donald Trump has been showing increasing signs of frustration, anger, and nervousness, as the USA’s allies in the Middle East and the West snub him by declining to join this illegal, purposeless, and ill-conceived war. The European Union and European countries have refused to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a similar rebuke, the majority of the Middle Eastern allies have also closed their airspace for war-related flights. President Donald Trump is alone and isolated over matters related to his mindless invasion of Iran on presumptions far from reality.

He has been making incoherent statements about the military losses suffered by Iran, losing his temper with journalists over war-related questions, and deriding NATO for the reluctance of its members to play a contributory role in taking control of the Strait of Hormuz on the pretence of safe passage for oil cargoes. All this shows that he is gripped by a growing fear of losing everything – the war, public popularity, the November mid-term elections, and, most probably, his office and immunity, facing prosecution and punishment.

Iran has turned epic fury into epic fear, notwithstanding the assassination of its senior political and military leadership. The loss of Ali Larijani after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is shocking. Larijani was a highly qualified leader with a PhD in Western philosophy and had served his nation in various senior positions, including the Speaker of the Parliament and the National Security Chief. He was the trusted aide of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Persian nation is faced with the hardest test of its existence.

If the war drags on, many monarchies and emirates in the Middle East may collapse, with the United States losing its influence in this region and paving the way for another country to fill the power vacuum

If the war drags on, many monarchies and emirates in the Middle East may collapse, with the United States losing its influence in this region and paving the way for another country to fill the power vacuum

The assassination of Ali Larijani, a pragmatic and moderate figure, would strengthen the hardliners within the clerical regime and compound the war situation. Vali Nasr, a known scholar on Iran and Shia Islam with many well-researched publications to his credit, says, “With every assassination, the United States and Israel are engineering greater radicalisation of Iran’s leadership. It will make for a bleak future for Iran, the Iranians, the region, and ultimately makes it far more difficult for the United States to disentangle itself from this endless conflict in the region”.

The United States leaders should be ready for a nightmarishly long war similar to their invasion of Afghanistan. The invasion bogged them down for two decades in rugged Afghanistan. Their shameful flight from Afghan soil reminded the world of the USA’s defeat, disgrace, and exodus from Vietnam. The odious war crimes committed by the USA in Vietnam and Korea are indelibly carved as repulsive appellations in human history. The American nation would never be able to erase these horrendous blots from its face. Their war crimes in Afghanistan and Iran, when collected, sifted from falsehood and compiled, would bring enormous shame to humanity.

President Donald Trump, being a boorish politician, does not have the courage of a statesman to admit his mistake and think of course correction. It has now dawned on him that Netanyahu and his own aides made monumental miscalculations about Iran’s war strength, defence strategy, arsenal stocks, its potential nuclear capability, and the imminence of its ballistic missile attacks on the United States and Israel, the intensity of public anger against the clerical regime, chances of the rehabilitation of monarchy, resolve and resilience of the people of Iran, and the rebounding Persian nationalism.

He has also realised that putting troops on the ground would mean stepping into a quagmire and getting stuck for years, if not decades, in Iran. He wants to get out of the war, as he has activated some friends for mediation, but the Iranian leaders seem to be unwilling to give him a face-saving exit. They have laid down certain conditions for ending the war: to provide international guarantees against further attacks; to recognise the Iranian nation’s rights as provided in the United Nations Charter, international law and conventions; and to pay war reparations.

The United States would not accept these demands, which reflect a formal admission of defeat and failure. This would bury the Jewish leaders’ cherished dream of Greater Israel forever. Instead, this would catapult Iran to superiority in the region, with regional countries making a beeline to seek its political and strategic partnership. This would be perceived as a dire situation for Israeli leaders and the Jewish lobbies in the United States.

Nevertheless, all independent observers agree that the landscape that is going to emerge in the region after this ill-conceived war would be quite different from what we know as the Middle East. If the war drags on, many monarchies and emirates in the Middle East may collapse, with the United States losing its influence in this region and paving the way for another country to fill the power vacuum.

Perhaps the Iranian leaders are using the above demands as a bargaining chip, and may agree to find a middle path to end this bloodletting. For the Iranians, it has become a question of survival. This barbarity has rather radicalised the Iranian nation and leadership. The air war and assassinations would not break their morale. They would continue to fight. Their war strategy and the country’s terrain would help them to tire out their enemy.

Only President Donald Trump can retrieve the situation by snubbing the rogue Israeli leaders, announcing a ceasefire unilaterally, lifting, as a confidence-building measure, some of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran, and inviting the Iranians to resume the diplomatic process for a deal. This would shift the pressure from him to the Iranian leadership. Would he show this statesman’s courage and wisdom? Many doubt it.


© The Friday Times