By this time of year, the longing begins. The buds on the liquidambars and the London plane tree are checked for the first signs of swelling. Note is made of the sun's changing early morning ingress into the house. And of the incremental delay of the sunset, now retreating to well after five.

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July's passing is a time of hope, a realisation that winter's grip will soon loosen, that spring's arrival is a matter of weeks away.

It's a welcome thought but it comes with a nagging trepidation. Seeing what summer has wrought upon the northern hemisphere this year - successive heatwaves, drought and devastating wildfires - and with a monster El Nino now declared, dark memories are resurfacing.

Of entire towns ravaged by fire. Of thousands of homes lost. Of people huddled with their animals on beaches as the flames bore down. Of the constant fear of every change in the wind. Of holiday makers trapped in tourist towns without power or information from the outside world. Of the apocalyptic silence of country reduced to ash.

It's seven years since the fires that went on to sweep much of Australia ignited. They might have been called Black Summer but they first broke out in June and July of 2019. They weren't extinguished until March the following year.

For anyone who lived through Black Summer the news out of France and Spain - the burning forests, the evacuations, the charred rubble where homes once stood, the stampeding horses and abandoned dogs - carries grim portent. But even without those harrowing images, more subtle signs suggest we should be on a heightened state of alert.

In NSW, this winter has been warmer than normal. Across the state, June was the third warmest opening month of winter recorded. In Sydney, it was the warmest since records began in 1859. West of the Great Divide, the month delivered above average rainfall but on the coast it was much drier than normal.

Meteorologists put that down to consistent high pressure systems and above average ocean temperatures.

We'll know how July fared in a few days but already rainfall has trended below average across southern and eastern Australia. It's been dry July in more ways than........

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