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Tokyo Report | Politics | East Asia

Japan’s Election in the Eyes of the Japan Innovation Party

The outcome has decidedly mixed implications for the LDP’s junior partner.

Just before Japan’s recent general elections, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) joined the national government for the first time. At the election, the JIP won a solid but underwhelming 36 seats. The party won 18 seats in the single-member districts of Osaka Prefecture where it is based and where, together with the Kinki proportional representation block, it continues to perform well. Elsewhere in Japan, however, it has struggled to gain traction.

This lackluster performance is unlikely to have been a result of Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s decision to dissolve the Lower House being too sudden. Regardless of the timing of the dissolution, as soon as it decided to conclude a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the expectation was that the party would find it more difficult than previously to expand its influence outside of Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe (Keihanshin Metropolitan Area), centering on the city of Osaka.

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Just before Japan’s recent general elections, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) joined the national government for the first time. At the election, the JIP won a solid but underwhelming 36 seats. The party won 18 seats in the single-member districts of Osaka Prefecture where it is based and where, together with the Kinki proportional representation block, it continues to perform well. Elsewhere in Japan, however, it has struggled to gain traction.

This lackluster performance is unlikely to have been a result of Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s decision to dissolve the Lower House being too sudden. Regardless of the timing of the dissolution, as soon as it decided to conclude a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the expectation was that the party would find it more difficult than previously to expand its influence outside of Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe (Keihanshin Metropolitan Area), centering on the city of Osaka.

The JIP had never previously cooperated with the LDP. The party commands a dominant position in Osaka Prefecture, where it can win in most single-member districts irrespective of whether the LDP runs a candidate or not. Outside of Osaka Prefecture, the party’s chances of beating LDP candidates are generally low. If LDP and JIP candidates were to compete, that would very likely be to the benefit of the Centrist Reform Alliance or the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). The decision not to work with the LDP electorally suggests that the JIP had already accepted that its power base was limited to the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area.

Still, there is little doubt that the snap election came as a surprise to the JIP. As a result, the election happened without the LDP voluntarily withdrawing from any of the single-member districts in Osaka Prefecture. The JIP was probably aware that it would win any direct competition, but at the same time, the LDP not running any candidates would certainly have made matters easier. In fact, Takaichi did not even campaign in Osaka. As for the JIP, it would likely have wanted to piggyback on the popularity of Takaichi as a benefit of joining the government parties.

If the cooperative relationship between the LDP and the JIP solidifies, the LDP may eventually withdraw from Osaka Prefecture, leaving the JIP to occupy a position similar to that of the Christian Social Union in Germany (which always cooperates as a regional party in Bavaria with the national party Christian Democratic Union). However, it will take more than a decade to reach that point, and we cannot really consider this election to have been even a first step in the process. The LDP’s local organization in Osaka Prefecture (Osaka Prefectural Federation) is likely to keep competing with the JIP for the foreseeable future.

What worries the JIP is the extent of the LDP’s success in the recent election. The fact that the LDP singlehandedly won 316 seats will strengthen Takaichi’s standing within the party and reduce the need to accept policy demands from the JIP. Despite the LDP remaining a minority government party in the Upper House, it now has the potential to create a majority through talks with Sanseito and the DPP, which are closer in policy terms to Takaichi. These parties are also very likely to welcome discussions as they yield to Takaichi’s popularity. Thus, the merits of the JIP being a government party are diminishing.

If Takaichi does form Upper House alliances, it is likely to have significant implications for two policies being pushed by the JIP, namely reducing the number of members of the Diet and the “second capital” initiative. There has always been considerable opposition within the LDP to reducing the number of Diet members, so even if that policy were to be adopted, the scale would likely be small. As for the second capital initiative, JIP the wants to see a bill that effectively designates Osaka as the sole second capital, but the DPP argues for legislation that also designates other cities as special cities. It is currently unknown which option Takaichi will choose, but the chances of the JIP line being adopted are clearly lower than they were prior to the election.

If the second capital initiative does not go as expected by the JIP, this will greatly undermine the significance of the gubernatorial and mayoral elections that were held in conjunction with the recent general election, after Osaka Governor Yoshimura Hirofumi and Osaka Mayor Yokoyama Hideyuki both resigned before the end of their terms to seek a mandate for the initiative. Yoshimura and Yokoyama wanted a third referendum based on the logic that Osaka cannot become the second capital without realizing the Osaka Metropolis Plan (abolishing Osaka City and establishing special wards similar to Tokyo’s 23 wards within the city limits), arguing that this required winning gubernatorial and mayoral elections while campaigning for such a referendum. If the second capital plan diverges from what has been proposed by the JIP and loses its connection with the Osaka Metropolitan Plan, this will likely substantially diminish the political clout of Yoshimura, who is also leader of the JIP.

That will also have a negative impact on how the JIP is viewed in the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area in the long run. The election results do not suggest that the voters in the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area have significantly shifted in their appraisal of the JIP since it became a government party. Nonetheless, if the JIP is unable to show its influence not only on national political issues, such as reducing the number of members of the Diet and social security reform, but also on issues profoundly relevant to Osaka, including the second capital initiative, this will inevitably shape perceptions of the JIP.

Having sought a way forward for itself by joining the government and settling for a role as a regional party in the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area, the results of the recent election have arguably cast a shadow over the JIP’s prospects.

MACHIDORI Satoshi is a professor at the Graduate School of Law, Kyoto University.

2026 Japanese elections

Japan Innovation Party

Liberal Democratic Party

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