ASEAN Beat | Diplomacy | Southeast Asia

What the Latest ‘2 2’ Dialogue Tells Us About China-Indonesia Relations

China wants more influence in Indonesia’s defense sector. Jakarta should make sure that also suits its national interests.

From left: Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono and Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin attend the 2026 2 2 Dialogue in Jakarta, Indonesia.

When Indonesia and China held their first “2 2” dialogue between foreign ministers and defense ministers in April 2025, the meeting marked a new chapter in the bilateral relations of the two countries. The two countries held the 2 2 dialogue again on August 21, 2026, in Jakarta. 

However, the significance of the 2 2 should not be measured solely by its symbolism. The strategic value actually lies in how far both countries can use the forum to manage differences while still maximizing their respective national interests. Already, this year’s 2 2 dialogue resulted in an agreement increasing the intensity of joint military exercises and plans to open joint munition factories in Indonesia, in line with the current national interests of both countries.

The relationship between Indonesia and China has fluctuated throughout history. Indonesia severed diplomatic relations with China entirely during the period from 1967 to 1990. Since ties were restored, the relationship between the two countries has continued to develop, and China has even become Indonesia’s largest trading partner. 

The closeness of the two countries in economic aspects influences the Indonesian public’s perception of China. According to “The State of Southeast Asia” survey released by the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, if the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China in the region were to escalate into an open conflict and Indonesia were faced with a scenario of having to choose sides, the majority of respondents from Indonesia would choose China. The preference for siding with China reached its highest point in the latest survey, at 80.1 percent.

However, China’s important economic position for Indonesia and even its clear “win” in survey results do not mean that Beijing can rest on its laurels.

China still has a lot of homework to do if it wants to secure its influence in Indonesia, especially when it comes to defense and security. When it comes to economic influence and public opinion, China significantly outperforms the United States – but in the defense sector, China is far behind. This lag is evident in both quantity and quality.

The data shows the gap in at least two aspects. First, the bilateral joint military exercises between the two countries. Based on IISS data, during the 2003-2022 period, Indonesia and China conducted joint exercises only four times. This number is far behind the 110 joint military exercises held between Indonesia and the United States during the same period.

Moreover, amid China’s emergence as one of the world’s top arms exporters, it can be said that Indonesia has not yet adopted Chinese weapons. According to data from the Laboratorium Indonesia 2045, throughout Indonesia’s history, its military has only operated three types of Chinese-made defense technology.

Both bilateral military exercises and the arms trade have long been believed to be instruments of defense diplomacy as well as strategies for exerting influence. And both metrics indicate that the defense cooperation ties between China and Indonesia are arguably weak. 

Beyond the statistical data as mentioned earlier, the defense cooperation between Indonesia and China is arguably weaker compared to that between Indonesia and the United States in terms of substance as well. The defense relationship between Indonesia and the United States appears to be more institutionalized, as shown most recently by the Major Defense........

© The Diplomat