Flashpoints | Security | South Asia

Pakistan’s Escalating Response to Cross-Border Terrorism

The recurring clashes represent the failure of months of diplomacy and external mediation. Where does the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship go from here?

Tensions are on the rise between Pakistan and Afghanistan once again as both countries have traded fire as well as accusations over the past few days. The current flare-up is a direct consequence of a terrorist attack on a mosque in the north-western Pakistani town of Kohat on September 18, in which at least 31 people, including 16 police personnel, were killed and over 100 injured. 

After neutralizing the attackers after an hours-long gun battle, Pakistan launched retaliatory airstrikes against the alleged positions of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur-led Ittehad ul Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP), which had claimed responsibility for the attack, and its ideological ally, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Paktika and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan on September 21. Pakistan claimed to have killed 28 terrorists in those strikes. 

Instead of engaging Pakistan’s border posts with machine guns and mortars like in most previous instances, the Taliban government of Afghanistan launched drones against Pakistan from its territory in the early hours of September 23. Eight of the drones were downed by Pakistan’s air defenses, according to Pakistani authorities. 

The Afghan drone incursions did not cause any casualties or damage to civilian or military infrastructure in Pakistan; the spokesperson for the Pakistani president dismissed them as unfrightening “flying toys.” Even so, Islamabad conducted fresh air raids in Afghanistan, targeting 10 different locations in the early hours of September 24. Pakistan’s information minister confirmed that the second round of strikes was indeed a response to the Afghan drone incursions.

Quite ironically, the Kohat terrorist attack came a day after Turkiye’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, arrived in Islamabad following his trip to Afghanistan. Kalin was continuing Turkiye’s effort to mediate a long-term peace between the two countries. Kabul had already expressed its lack of enthusiasm toward the Turkish mediation when the Taliban’s Supreme Leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhunzada refused to see Kalin in Kandahar, reportedly calling him “Westernized.” Then Islamabad’s identification of one of the suicide bombers as an Afghan national and the subsequent events sealed the fate of the ongoing peace efforts by Turkiye and Qatar.

While Pakistani and Afghan security forces continue to trade fire across the border and accusations in the media, the question on many a mind right now is whether any meaningful mediation between the two countries is possible any time soon. The short answer seems to be “no.” Here is the longer explanation for it.

Looking at Pakistan’s kinetic responses to terrorist attacks that its officials associated with terrorist safe havens across the border in Afghanistan, one can discern a break from the past since October last year. Even though Islamabad has been alleging an Afghan connection to earlier terrorist attacks as well, its kinetic responses were sparse and cautious. 

Pakistan’s first reported use of force inside Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 occurred in April 2022, following a terrorist attack in the North Waziristan district bordering Afghanistan. At the time, Pakistan’s Foreign Office did not even acknowledge the airstrikes, even though the Taliban government of Afghanistan complained to the United Nations Security Council about them and initiated limited cross-border retaliatory fire against Pakistani border posts. 

Two years later, in March 2024, Pakistan once again responded with airstrikes inside Afghanistan after a terrorist attack in North Waziristan. This time, Pakistan’s Foreign Office was quick to acknowledge the attack but its spokesperson hastened to add that Islamabad “respect[ed] the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan and look[ed] forward to working together” with Afghanistan. In a subsequent press briefing, the Foreign Office even clarified that its actions were not against the government or the people of Afghanistan. 

The response of the Taliban government of Afghanistan was also measured. Even though it........

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