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Heartland Polling: Iran War Is Unpopular, But Not Hurting Trump

Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers and advisor to CatholicVote. He directs political campaigns on media, polling, and Hispanic outreach, including Trump 2016/2020 and Vance 2022 U.S. Senate. He is a former broadcaster for Fox News and CNN.

Fresh new polling from the key battleground state of Wisconsin reveals that Midwestern voters take a skeptical view of the Iran war, with 40% approval and 50% disapprove. Right now, the split is very partisan with Democrat voters at net -71% approve, GOP voters at +60% — while Independents come in at -19%. 

17% of Republican voters against the war is not an immaterial number, though, especially for so early in a new conflict. 

But the unpopularity of the war has not at all changed overall job approval of President Donald Trump, which remained exactly unchanged vs. last month in Wisconsin at -15% net, with 38% approve and 53% disapprove. Those are not rosy numbers, to be sure, but it is revealing that an unpopular war and spiking prices at the pump have not hit Trump sentiment, at least not yet. This survey showed that only 9% of Trump voters “regret” voting for the president. 

Perhaps most of the explanation for that stasis flows from the implosion over on the Democrat side.

In other words, the radical and super unpopular Democrats are unable to seize on political opportunity, even when Trump should be vulnerable. Why? Because the American people simply reject the Marxist, woke slop that is constantly pushed by the extremist, coastal Dems who cannot effectively speak to middle America. 

To quantify that sentiment, consider that the Democrat Party approval is nearly 2-to-1 underwater in Wisconsin, with only 30% approval and 57% disapproval.

The Democrats in Washington are certainly not helping their cause with constant obstruction of the SAVE America Act to ensure that upcoming elections get decided only by valid U.S. citizen voters with identification, an issue that regularly gets 80% support among the American public.

Consequently, even with a war that does not earn wide support, voters have not yet changed their view of Trump overall.

For one thing, Trump has dominated the national scene in America now for over a decade. So, attitudes about him have hardened, both positive and negative. But second, the alternative seems more intent on pleasing the faculty lounge dwellers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison vs. persuading cops, waitresses, and welders across the Badger State.

That said, these numbers also show that there is not too much margin for error regarding a prolonged war. Economic confidence is already abysmal in Wisconsin, and across the nation. Even before the war began, this same pollster found that Wisconsin citizens gave Trump awful marks on handling inflation with -31% approval, 29%/60%. 

So, if the war drags on, and prices stay elevated into summertime, then the GOP becomes more vulnerable into November, no matter how dreadful the Democrats are. If the conflict is going to carry on, then the White House would be well-advised to make a very serious “sales” pitch to the American people about why it is imperative and in the national interest. 

As disastrous as the Iraq War was, George W. Bush engaged in a furious marketing campaign to get public support and he did get Congressional approval for the intervention.

Hopefully, this war is brief and nearing conclusion. But if not, similar efforts would be required today to win over a skeptical populace, as shown by this survey.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.

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