Trump’s Iran war is a fiasco.

Undertaken without adequate planning by a president deaf to the advice of experts, there is no meaningful measure by which it can be categorized as successful.

While Trump regularly notes that many of Iran’s leaders have been killed and much of its military capacity has been degraded, the reality is that in terms of the multiple objectives floated as rationales for launching the war, not only have none been achieved but it appears virtually certain that none will be.

The US intelligence community is reporting that Iran’s hardline regime remains in place, and that, indeed, it may become even more extreme than it was in the past. Iran’s nuclear capabilities—far from being “obliterated” as Trump often boasted following last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer—remain a threat. Many of the scientists and technicians who were part of its nuclear program remain active. The country’s stock of enriched uranium remains in its control—and actually seizing the uranium would require a massive, highly risky boots-on-the-ground operation that would very likely lead to a deeper, more protracted conflict, high US casualties and perhaps even more incentives for Iran to restart and even accelerate its nuclear ambitions.

The opposition in Iran is bloodied, scattered and seems unlikely to lead an effective rebellion. While Iran’s military has been weakened substantially, it continues to retain stockpiles of missiles and drones enabling it to continue its war against US assets in the region, America’s Israeli partners, and Arab states viewed as sympathetic. Certainly, it is within Iran’s capabilities to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut to international vessels indefinitely, giving it massive leverage due to the enormous negative........

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