Lula trails Flávio Bolsonaro heading into Brazil’s presidential runoff, after a campaign shaped by voter fatigue, hostile media coverage and sustained intervention from Trump’s political network.

With the Brazilian presidential election headed to a runoff, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is down 47 per cent to 45 per cent and faces a massive fight ahead. I wanted to give a quick analysis of what happened and where things are going next.

Lula could still win if he can consolidate support from third parties

Lula lost by only 2 per cent, and several third-party candidates, who took a combined 8 per cent of the vote, have publicly indicated they would not endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round.

Likewise, 29 million Brazilians did not vote in this round of the runoff and may be persuaded to vote for Lula in the second round if they fear Bolsonaro.

While Brasil defeated Jair Bolsonaro narrowly in 2022, it swung right again, much like the United States. Voters are upset, and they are taking it out on the party in power.

On Tuesday, the Brazilian Senate is scheduled to vote on a measure that would shorten the Brazilian working week from six days to five days. Bolsonaro has opposed this measure, and Lula could use the vote to mobilise workers’ support against the Bolsonaro team.

It’s a tough road ahead for Lula, but not impossible.

What hurt Lula in the first round?

Three primary factors hurt Lula in the first round. First, Lula’s age and the fact that the Workers’ Party (PT) has held the presidency in Brazil for 18 of the last 24 years.

The second is that the Brazilian corporate media constantly manufactured scandals against Lula.

Finally, the role that US President Donald Trump played in training and validating the right wing in Brasil, while not decisive, provided critical support. Here’s what went wrong for Lula.

1. Lula is 80 and his party ruled Brasil for 18 of the last 24 years

Like former US President Joe Biden, one problem Lula faces right now is that he is 80 years old. He doesn’t look as sharp as he used to, while Flávio Bolsonaro is nearly half his age – 45 years younger.

Additionally, Lula’s party, the Workers’ Party (PT), has held the presidency for 18 of the last 24 years. Lula and Dilma, both members of the Workers’ Party (PT), held the presidency from 2002 to 2016. Lula was re-elected in 2022 for his record third term. No Brazilian has ever won a third term.

Although the PT has rarely controlled Congress, it is seen as the ruling party........

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