The Iran war has damaged US leverage in the Persian Gulf, strengthened Iran’s regional bargaining position and forced Gulf Arab states to reassess their reliance on Washington.

If Iran handles its diplomacy adroitly, the odds favour a continuing Iranian strategic ascendancy in the Persian Gulf.

Iran will not relinquish its capacity to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Its stock of enriched uranium is secure. It has tight domestic control. There appears to be a unity of purpose and a vision of history at leadership levels that will endure, despite any military setbacks and financial pressures levelled against them.

Probably by late June or July, the much-anticipated oil crunch is expected finally to translate into serious global issues of oil availability – especially if the Iranians maintain their current restrictions on the Strait, and the US naval blockade on Iranian ports remains in effect.

The US strategic oil reserve is about to hit its lowest level since its inception. Japan’s strategic oil reserves have fallen dramatically. China may not be willing to continue making available to spot purchasers some of the oil shipments it has in transit at present.

Even if he were to define his goals more clearly and narrowly, it is clear Trump has no realistic diplomatic leverage left to reach a final deal before the need to meet a global energy crisis overtakes other, more conventional, considerations.

If threatened militarily, Iran could opt to increase pressure on the United States by applying restrictions on shipping via the Red Sea. It could threaten undersea communication cables in both the Red Sea and the Gulf.

There is concern, for the region and the world at large, that the outlook for the war may be moving beyond the issues of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and control over Iranian nuclear material (important as they are) into a truly unpredictable scenario, shaped to a very large extent by........

© Pearls and Irritations