The Immediate Aftermath of US-Israeli Airstrikes

5 weeks ago, when the US and Israel launched their war against Iran, US President Donald Trump publicly called for the Iranians to rise up against the regime. Hours after the launch of Operation Epic Fury, Trump said this to the Iranian people: “Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered; don’t leave your home; it’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government; it will be yours to take. This will be your only chance for generations.”

It’s clear that the US hoped that some sort of civilian-led mass uprising would follow the strikes on Iran’s leadership, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other senior regime officials. However, this much-awaited uprising hasn’t happened, and instead the Iranian regime has prevailed, becoming fractured between the surviving members of the religious leadership in Tehran and the increasingly powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Furthermore, there is increasing speculation regarding the whereabouts of Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and whether he is even alive.

Unlike the pyramidal structure of dictatorships in places like Russia, the Iranian regime is more like a series of pillars. The Supreme Leader acts as the main decision-making authority. The IRGC is responsible for the regime’s survival militarily as well as controlling a significant part of the economy and suppressing dissent. The judiciary and the Basij militia, a volunteer force within the IRGC, are responsible for enforcing Islamic law and promoting ideological conformity, and the so-called axis of resistance, including Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah, protects Iranian interests in the wider region.

In February, US-Israeli strikes on Tehran killed Iran’s longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with various family members and seven........

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