Reko Diq: A $100b red flag
Barrick Mining, the operator of Reko Diq Project, has extended its review by 12 months citing escalating security concerns in Balochistan and the broader Middle East.
What does it really mean? Red alert: “Review” Is corporate language for serious doubt. Barrick is not withdrawing – the company has actually reaffirmed ‘long-term value’. Barrick is not pausing – the company is recalibrating. In effect, Barrick is doing three things. One-reviewing capital allocation. Two-reviewing delivery strategy. Three-reviewing timeline.
Why does this really matter? Reko Diq is Pakistan’s single largest FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) anchor. Under Phase 1, the capital expenditure is estimated at $6-7 billion with expected output of 250,000 tons of copper and 300,000 ounces of gold. Annual export potential: $4.37 billion. Every year of delay shifts cash flows into the future, resulting in a Net Present Value (NPV) loss of approximately $1.5 billion. Heightened security risks drive up the required rate of return, adding another $3 billion........
