The story in Makerfield is not that Reform is surging. It is that Labour is no longer the default choice for some of the voters we spoke to.

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This is based on focus groups conducted by Opinium and LBC with voters who have previously supported Labour and are now considering or planning a switch to Reform.

What makes the dynamics of this by-election complicated is that there isn’t a single, uniform swing away from Labour. The shift is uneven, with different voters moving at different speeds.

For many of the voters we spoke to, supporting Labour was not something they interrogated much before. It was habitual, shaped by family and repetition. What comes through in these groups is that this is beginning to break down. Once voting Labour is no longer taken for granted, the way people approach politics changes with it.

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